| Election Day Review and Editorial Predictions |
Loveland - November 3, 2009 at 7:00 AM
Larimer County Clerk Scott Doyle early ballot return information for Loveland reveals high numbers of ballots have already
been received for Loveland Wards 1, 2 & 4 while the number of ballots returned for Ward 3 is extremely low.
Candidates for Loveland Mayor and City Council can be divided into two categories; walkers and advertisers. Wards
where advertisers and walkers are running have a high return of ballots while the modest campaign resources and effort by
both candidates in Ward 3 is reflected in the lower number of ballots having been returned to date.
Voters who have not yet returned their mail-in ballots must now return them in person to either the Larimer County Clerk's
office in Ft. Collins or Larimer County Vehicle Registration offices located 205 E. 6th St. in Loveland before 7:00 PM
tonight. Election results will be posted at the Larimer County Clerk website sometime after 7:00 PM this evening.
Here is a quick summary of the various races and predictions regarding the outcome by LovelandPolitics contributors.
Mayor
This race is difficult to call with so many candidates but Cecil Gutierrez appears to lead the pack as of last week. Evidence
of Cecil's lead is the Loveland Reporter-Herald online opinion poll, number of signs actually at residences around Loveland
and grassroots campaigning efforts. The surprise mayoral candidate is Walt Skowron who was seen mostly as an annoying
gadfly by colleagues Mayor Pro Tem Dave Clark and current Loveland Mayor Gene Pielin. Clark attempted to discourage
Skowron from running for mayor with an impassioned personal plea but failed to bump Skowron from the race. Skowron's
candidacy split the membership support between the two candidates of special interest groups like the Chamber of
Commerce and McWhinney operatives who gave Clark the back room nod to run for Mayor.
LovelandPolitics believes the contest is now between Skowron, an impressive grassroots campaigner and his council
colleague Cecil Gutierrez, an equally impressive campaigner, whose kind demeanor and professional style have earned him
points during his last two years on city council. Gutierrez has also demonstrated an ability to raise in order of magnitude
more money than Skowron who is relying heavily on his own funds to seek the higher office.
Even the Loveland Reporter-Herald abandoned Clark's anemic and off-message campaign early by endorsing Walt
Skowron for Mayor. One former reporter told LovelandPolitics the only way the paper could have done this is "if a
majority of the editorial staff have never sat through an entire council meeting." Clark's later open violations of Loveland's
campaign finance laws likely comforted the Loveland Reporter-Herald for having steered clear of his law breaking pursuit
for higher office.
Gutierrez we believe has a strong chance to take Loveland's top seat on council as Mayor thus creating the biggest upset in
Loveland politics in at least a decade. A number of readers have sent us information indicating they believe Clark is well in
the lead with Cecil placing second and Skowron third. We tend to believe the results will show it is really a contest between
Gutierrez and Skowron with Clark running in third place.
Ward 1
In Ward 1, candidate Adam Koniecki has run a strong campaign by visiting over 2000 of the some 6000 homes in the
Ward thus becoming a serious contender despite his young age, lack of political history in Loveland and only spending just
over $1,000.
Incumbent Councilman Daryl Klassen and former Councilwoman Jan Brown who (defeated by Cecil Gutierrez two years
ago in a landslide) both raised and spent more than double the funds of their opponent. Instead of grassroots campaigning
they have relied mostly on direct mail and newspaper advertising to get their message to the voters.
Loveland’s Chamber of Commerce oddly endorsed both Jan Brown and Daryl Klassen for the same seat which really isn’t
an endorsement at all. For the more intellectually curious in the community that really is not properly an endorsement for
either but instead a no vote for their opponent. Counts of signs in actual yards around Ward 1 demonstrate a higher number
for Adam than the other two thus perhaps showing the Chamber's message isn't being well received.
Jan Brown (as in her last campaign) was forced to hire people to “volunteer” on her campaign to distribute literature while
Klassen relied heavily on daily advertising in the Loveland Reporter-Herald. LovelandPolitics believes the Ward 1 race will
likely be between Klassen and Koniecki. Klassen has both the money and history in the community while Adam's greatest
contribution to his campaign has been his tireless effort to connect with voters to better reflect their wants and needs on city
council. Whether those efforts can prevail over Klassens many years in the community and better financing will be apparent
tonight.
Ward 2
Candidate Joan Shaffer in Ward 2 has demonstrated that raising money and grassroots campaigning are not mutually
exclusive. Shaffer has topped the list of fund raising for this election cycle by raising and spending over $7,000. In addition,
she has also out-paced her opponent, Bob Snyder, in grassroots campaigning by going door-to-door and organizing
massive volunteer literature drops.
Nonetheless, the Loveland Chamber of Commerce and other paid McWhinney apologists have been solidly behind Snyder
from the beginning of this election. Efforts to limit the number of qualified candidates (by Loveland Chamber of Commerce's
Councilwoman Carol Johnson) in Ward 2 were successful thus allowing them to rally behind a single candidate. While
difficult to call, the superior campaign and organizing skills of Joan Shaffer may prevail in the end along with a little help from
Loveland’s City Manager Don Williams. Johnson has much to fear in Shaffer being elected as the contrast of a smart
woman capable of holding her own with the "good Ole' boy" crowd will magnify Johnson's role as only a clapping seal for
the current majority.
Williams is said to have warned city staff he might resign if Shaffer is elected thus providing the unintended consequence of
boosting her support among the workers in city hall. Many have tired of Williams’ autocratic management style and are
looking for a more professional manager for the city. Williams appears to be the only one who doesn't yet know it. Staff
also wants a council that has more autonomy in shaping city policies and isn't so dependent upon Williams to set the agenda
for future discussions.
Ward 3
This race is best characterized as a couple of well meaning citizens stepping into the political arena with little experience in
politics. Both Joseph Hertwig and Hugh McKean admire Walt Skowron, their current council representative from Ward 3,
for his service but each has also demonstrated an independent flare on various issues at the candidate forums.
Neither has spent hardly any money nor appear to be aggressively campaigning for the office. This has resulted in Ward 3
having, so far, the least number of voters returning their ballots for the election. Some voters who contacted
LovelandPolitics from Ward 3 were unsure about who is running in their Ward but knew the names of candidates in other
Wards.
Subsiquently, Joseph Hertwig took-up LovelandPolitics on our standing offer to all candidates to post a message to the
voters (unedited) along with a pubicity photograph on this website. The reaction to his well reasoned message was very
positive. Unfortunately, signs for Hertwig have recently begun appearing on properties owned by current Loveland
Councilman Larry Heckle. Heckle has made a career out of exclusively representing special interests on city council while
enjoying the unfettered access to staff for advancing the building applications for his local construction concern. Heckle has
largely ignored constituent complaints and won re-election two years ago only after his elderly opponent was hospitalized
during the campaign for an emrgency hip replacement.
One email we received complained about Heckle's support of Hertwig by stating, "they got to him" inferring the Zombie
lover whose truck sports a sign for Clark is also supporting Hertwig in hopes that he is also a Zombie for special interests on
council. We disagree, Hertwig is his own man and will decide issues on the merits. He isn't likely to be easily influenced.
As an airline pilot his income is not dependent on any local industry heavily influenced by McWhinney.
We believe Hertwig will win not because of necessarily a better message but because most voters who haven't attended
forums for candidates haven't heard from his opponent at all. That being said, McKean has demonstrated a more
independent streak in his comments regarding special interests in city hall but that message didn't appear to have any vehicle
to find its way to the vast majority of uninvolved voters.
Ward 4
This one is easy. A well respected and articulate local attorney against a reluctant candidate. Cat McEwen will likely walk
away easily with the Ward 4 seat as people know she wants the job and is willing to work for it. Her opponent, Teri Volk,
is another back room Chamber of Commerce candidate that Mayoral candidate David Clark has claimed credit for
recruiting to run for office. Volk failed to even show-up for one candidate forum and is said to be horrified that Clark's
promised coattails of popular support are too short to grab.
Volk has been an important contributor to the Loveland Construction Advisory Board and unlike Councilwoman Carol
Johnson, could be an articulate and valuable member of Loveland's City Council. However, people normally don't vote for
candidate's unwilling to appear at candidate forums - it is like asking for a job while skipping the interview.
Stranger things have happened and if Clark surprisingly carries more votes than we predict look for Volk to gain by his
momentum. Looking at the race at 7:00 AM Tuesday morning we think it is highly unlikely.
Larimer County Clerk Scott Doyle early ballot return information for Loveland reveals high numbers of ballots have already
been received for Loveland Wards 1, 2 & 4 while the number of ballots returned for Ward 3 is extremely low.
Candidates for Loveland Mayor and City Council can be divided into two categories; walkers and advertisers. Wards
where advertisers and walkers are running have a high return of ballots while the modest campaign resources and effort by
both candidates in Ward 3 is reflected in the lower number of ballots having been returned to date.
Voters who have not yet returned their mail-in ballots must now return them in person to either the Larimer County Clerk's
office in Ft. Collins or Larimer County Vehicle Registration offices located 205 E. 6th St. in Loveland before 7:00 PM
tonight. Election results will be posted at the Larimer County Clerk website sometime after 7:00 PM this evening.
Here is a quick summary of the various races and predictions regarding the outcome by LovelandPolitics contributors.
Mayor
This race is difficult to call with so many candidates but Cecil Gutierrez appears to lead the pack as of last week. Evidence
of Cecil's lead is the Loveland Reporter-Herald online opinion poll, number of signs actually at residences around Loveland
and grassroots campaigning efforts. The surprise mayoral candidate is Walt Skowron who was seen mostly as an annoying
gadfly by colleagues Mayor Pro Tem Dave Clark and current Loveland Mayor Gene Pielin. Clark attempted to discourage
Skowron from running for mayor with an impassioned personal plea but failed to bump Skowron from the race. Skowron's
candidacy split the membership support between the two candidates of special interest groups like the Chamber of
Commerce and McWhinney operatives who gave Clark the back room nod to run for Mayor.
LovelandPolitics believes the contest is now between Skowron, an impressive grassroots campaigner and his council
colleague Cecil Gutierrez, an equally impressive campaigner, whose kind demeanor and professional style have earned him
points during his last two years on city council. Gutierrez has also demonstrated an ability to raise in order of magnitude
more money than Skowron who is relying heavily on his own funds to seek the higher office.
Even the Loveland Reporter-Herald abandoned Clark's anemic and off-message campaign early by endorsing Walt
Skowron for Mayor. One former reporter told LovelandPolitics the only way the paper could have done this is "if a
majority of the editorial staff have never sat through an entire council meeting." Clark's later open violations of Loveland's
campaign finance laws likely comforted the Loveland Reporter-Herald for having steered clear of his law breaking pursuit
for higher office.
Gutierrez we believe has a strong chance to take Loveland's top seat on council as Mayor thus creating the biggest upset in
Loveland politics in at least a decade. A number of readers have sent us information indicating they believe Clark is well in
the lead with Cecil placing second and Skowron third. We tend to believe the results will show it is really a contest between
Gutierrez and Skowron with Clark running in third place.
Ward 1
In Ward 1, candidate Adam Koniecki has run a strong campaign by visiting over 2000 of the some 6000 homes in the
Ward thus becoming a serious contender despite his young age, lack of political history in Loveland and only spending just
over $1,000.
Incumbent Councilman Daryl Klassen and former Councilwoman Jan Brown who (defeated by Cecil Gutierrez two years
ago in a landslide) both raised and spent more than double the funds of their opponent. Instead of grassroots campaigning
they have relied mostly on direct mail and newspaper advertising to get their message to the voters.
Loveland’s Chamber of Commerce oddly endorsed both Jan Brown and Daryl Klassen for the same seat which really isn’t
an endorsement at all. For the more intellectually curious in the community that really is not properly an endorsement for
either but instead a no vote for their opponent. Counts of signs in actual yards around Ward 1 demonstrate a higher number
for Adam than the other two thus perhaps showing the Chamber's message isn't being well received.
Jan Brown (as in her last campaign) was forced to hire people to “volunteer” on her campaign to distribute literature while
Klassen relied heavily on daily advertising in the Loveland Reporter-Herald. LovelandPolitics believes the Ward 1 race will
likely be between Klassen and Koniecki. Klassen has both the money and history in the community while Adam's greatest
contribution to his campaign has been his tireless effort to connect with voters to better reflect their wants and needs on city
council. Whether those efforts can prevail over Klassens many years in the community and better financing will be apparent
tonight.
Ward 2
Candidate Joan Shaffer in Ward 2 has demonstrated that raising money and grassroots campaigning are not mutually
exclusive. Shaffer has topped the list of fund raising for this election cycle by raising and spending over $7,000. In addition,
she has also out-paced her opponent, Bob Snyder, in grassroots campaigning by going door-to-door and organizing
massive volunteer literature drops.
Nonetheless, the Loveland Chamber of Commerce and other paid McWhinney apologists have been solidly behind Snyder
from the beginning of this election. Efforts to limit the number of qualified candidates (by Loveland Chamber of Commerce's
Councilwoman Carol Johnson) in Ward 2 were successful thus allowing them to rally behind a single candidate. While
difficult to call, the superior campaign and organizing skills of Joan Shaffer may prevail in the end along with a little help from
Loveland’s City Manager Don Williams. Johnson has much to fear in Shaffer being elected as the contrast of a smart
woman capable of holding her own with the "good Ole' boy" crowd will magnify Johnson's role as only a clapping seal for
the current majority.
Williams is said to have warned city staff he might resign if Shaffer is elected thus providing the unintended consequence of
boosting her support among the workers in city hall. Many have tired of Williams’ autocratic management style and are
looking for a more professional manager for the city. Williams appears to be the only one who doesn't yet know it. Staff
also wants a council that has more autonomy in shaping city policies and isn't so dependent upon Williams to set the agenda
for future discussions.
Ward 3
This race is best characterized as a couple of well meaning citizens stepping into the political arena with little experience in
politics. Both Joseph Hertwig and Hugh McKean admire Walt Skowron, their current council representative from Ward 3,
for his service but each has also demonstrated an independent flare on various issues at the candidate forums.
Neither has spent hardly any money nor appear to be aggressively campaigning for the office. This has resulted in Ward 3
having, so far, the least number of voters returning their ballots for the election. Some voters who contacted
LovelandPolitics from Ward 3 were unsure about who is running in their Ward but knew the names of candidates in other
Wards.
Subsiquently, Joseph Hertwig took-up LovelandPolitics on our standing offer to all candidates to post a message to the
voters (unedited) along with a pubicity photograph on this website. The reaction to his well reasoned message was very
positive. Unfortunately, signs for Hertwig have recently begun appearing on properties owned by current Loveland
Councilman Larry Heckle. Heckle has made a career out of exclusively representing special interests on city council while
enjoying the unfettered access to staff for advancing the building applications for his local construction concern. Heckle has
largely ignored constituent complaints and won re-election two years ago only after his elderly opponent was hospitalized
during the campaign for an emrgency hip replacement.
One email we received complained about Heckle's support of Hertwig by stating, "they got to him" inferring the Zombie
lover whose truck sports a sign for Clark is also supporting Hertwig in hopes that he is also a Zombie for special interests on
council. We disagree, Hertwig is his own man and will decide issues on the merits. He isn't likely to be easily influenced.
As an airline pilot his income is not dependent on any local industry heavily influenced by McWhinney.
We believe Hertwig will win not because of necessarily a better message but because most voters who haven't attended
forums for candidates haven't heard from his opponent at all. That being said, McKean has demonstrated a more
independent streak in his comments regarding special interests in city hall but that message didn't appear to have any vehicle
to find its way to the vast majority of uninvolved voters.
Ward 4
This one is easy. A well respected and articulate local attorney against a reluctant candidate. Cat McEwen will likely walk
away easily with the Ward 4 seat as people know she wants the job and is willing to work for it. Her opponent, Teri Volk,
is another back room Chamber of Commerce candidate that Mayoral candidate David Clark has claimed credit for
recruiting to run for office. Volk failed to even show-up for one candidate forum and is said to be horrified that Clark's
promised coattails of popular support are too short to grab.
Volk has been an important contributor to the Loveland Construction Advisory Board and unlike Councilwoman Carol
Johnson, could be an articulate and valuable member of Loveland's City Council. However, people normally don't vote for
candidate's unwilling to appear at candidate forums - it is like asking for a job while skipping the interview.
Stranger things have happened and if Clark surprisingly carries more votes than we predict look for Volk to gain by his
momentum. Looking at the race at 7:00 AM Tuesday morning we think it is highly unlikely.
| Mayor Alexi S. Grewal Cecil A. Gutierrez David J. Clark Walt A. Skowron Glenn C. Rousey Ward 1 Andrea J. Brown Adam A. Koniecki Daryle W. Klassen Ward 2 Joan T. Shaffer Robert E. Snyder Jr. Ward 3 Joseph L. Hertwig Hugh McKean Ward 4 Cathleen McEwen Teri J. Volk |
LovelandPolitics.com
a non-partisan, not for profit, news website reporting on Loveland, Colorado.
a non-partisan, not for profit, news website reporting on Loveland, Colorado.
| Dark horse candidate Adam Koniecki has already run an impressive campaign against two older Loveland political hacks. If he prevails it will be an upset for the establishment |